QUARTERLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK: SEPTEMBER 2020

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SUMMARY

  • The next bull market phase should feature new leadership. We expect value to take over from growth in the U.S., with foreign equities the new leaders in the global space.

  • The revised U.S. budget outlook 2020-2030 shows Federal debt increasing to 107% of GDP by 2023, the highest level since 1946.

  • The Fed has adopted a new monetary policy framework favoring average price level targeting. Interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period. The Fed has officially abandoned the Phillips Curve which defined a relationship between low levels of unemployment and higher inflation.

  • Gold is rising in multiple currencies, a sign of a sustained bull market.

  • What's ahead for the dollar? An update on Ray Dalio's book Changing World Order.

  • Investment Strategy for a stagflation cycle; a three pronged approach.

  • Energy prices could be at a multi-year low.

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